Ron Schmelzer

Trevor Doerksen's Blog

What is going to happen to technology companies in 2009? If Democrats are good for technology what companies are Republicans good for - that is, what is going to happen to non-technology companies in 2009? Here's a look at some charts that correspond to leadership in the White House and performance of stocks.

Have a look at some charts that correspond to leadership in the White House and performance of stocks. Starting with Bush Senior, a Republican, in 1988 you can see that the markets were pretty turbulent. One thing I notice over that 4-year terms is that the the most turbulent was the technology heavy Nasdaq stocks. Notice, that in late 1992, the same time the markets could see Bill Clinton would be the next US President the Dow dips and the Nasdaq takes off.

OK, now have a look at the next chart. This one, is focused on the two terms in which Bill Clinton, a democrat was the US President.




The markets are all up for most of his term, but none more than the technology heavy Nasdaq. Notice again the drastic dip near the end of this term in the Nasdaq. Lots of things going on here, not the least of which was George Bush Junior, a Republican, was looking like he could be the next President. I know I bought my first oil stock in the months leading up to his election.

So, we move on. The trend so far is clear. Republican bad for Nasdaq, Democrat good.

Now, we all know Bush Junior messed up a lot of things, but have a look at the Nasdaq.

These are some bad days so the trend has become predictable. But wait. How come no uptick when Obama wins the US Presidential election. The Nasdaq is supposed to go up. Ok, lots of other explanations like outgoing President wanting to air out that little thing called the sub-prime mortgage crisis. But also a new President who's policies are unknown.

So what is going to happen to technology companies in 2009? If Democrats are good for technology what companies are Republicans good for - that is, what is going to happen to non-technology companies in 2009?

Have a look at Exxon starting in 1988.

Wow, the markets seemed pretty aware a Bush government would serve Exxon well. Then Clinton didn't seem to hurt Exxon, but you can see they underperformed other sectors. Then Bush takes over and look at the "correction" Exxon takes off again.

Are the good times for technology back again?

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